This article is exclusively published on Toutiao and is not authorized for reprint. According to Xinhua News Agency on May 20, the UAE has demanded that Iraq immediately halt all hostile actions launched from Iraqi territory. [1] The incident began on May 17, when three drones crossed into UAE airspace from Iraq, heading directly toward the Barakah nuclear power plant. The UAEs air defense system intercepted two of them, but the third drone slipped through and struck the peripheral generator unit of the plant. Fortunately, inspections revealed no significant damage, and no nuclear safety incidents occurred. It was a narrow escapeif the air defenses had failed, the consequences could have been catastrophic. Barakah nuclear power plant is a critical facility that supplies a quarter of the UAE's electricity. But the story didnt end there. On May 19, the UAE Ministry of Defense reported that over the past 48 hours, its air defense system had intercepted six drones, all originating from Iraq, targeting key infrastructure such as refineries and transportation hubs. Baghdad, on May 20, strongly condemned the drone attacks on the UAE and clarified that these drones were not launched by them, asserting they had no military plans to strike the UAE. Iraq and the UAE maintain a close brotherly special relationship, cooperating extensively in religion, culture, economic development, and regional counterterrorism, making it unlikely that Iraq would attack the UAE. [2] Amid the tense backdrop of the ongoing US-Iran conflict, suspicion naturally fell on Iran. During the war, Irans Lavan Island refinery suffered severe airstrikes, with 70% of its capacity knocked out. Iran could not identify the perpetrators and only suspected the UAE. However, the Wall Street Journals exclusive report on May 11 confirmed that the UAE had used unmarked Mirage 2000 jets to penetrate Iranian air defenses and bomb the Lavan refinery. Iran has also previously attacked the UAE; official UAE statistics report over 2,800 missile and drone attacks from Iran, targeting nuclear plants, airports, ports, and oil depots. Furthermore, Iran has long supported Shiite militias in Iraq, such as Hezbollah Brigades, the League of Justice, and the Popular Mobilization Forces, all under Iranian command, beyond Baghdads effective control. These militias had previously launched drone attacks on the UAE, such as the three drones fired by Hezbollah Brigades on February 2. Yet, the likelihood that the recent drone attacks were directly orchestrated or carried out by Iran is low. Despite ongoing tensions, US-Iran peace talks continue, and Irans economic pressures are severe; attacking the UAE would only destabilize the region and hinder negotiations. Moreover, the UAE, as a major Middle Eastern power, has consistently pursued a rational and restrained foreign policyany direct strike by Iran now would likely push the UAE closer to the US-Israel alliance, something Irans leadership wants to avoid. So, if not Iran, then who else could be responsible? [3] According to The New York Times on May 17, Iraqi security authorities confirmed that Israel has at least two secret military bases in Iraqs western desert. In the Middle East, Israel is perhaps the country most opposed to successful US-Iran negotiations. Israel has long regarded Iran as its primary enemy, given Irans advanced industrial base, vast economy, stable political system, and extensive proxy networks across the region. Irans hostility toward Israel is overt, and Israels strategy toward Iran is not about risk management like the U.S., but about eliminating the threat entirely. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is entangled in corruption cases, and an external conflict could justify postponing legal proceedings while using military success to gain public supportthe same reason the Gaza conflict persists. If Israel orchestrated the drone attacks on the UAEs nuclear plant, it could do so while remaining undetected and manipulate international opinion to point the blame at Iran, straining Iran-UAE relations. Considering Israels military presence in Iraq and the capabilities of local militias to launch drones at the UAE, it is entirely plausible that Israel carried out the attacks while framing Iran. #ToutiaoSelection C Xinhuo Project#
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